Is the worst over for pecusa?

The PB says so, but is it so? Consider this: in 2003-05 there were big shifts in many parishes as individuals and families left their congregations to find other places more in line with their views. This happened in liberal, moderate and conservative parishes. One of the problems with the decisions of GC03 is that they made a number of people and parishes respond by more carefully defining themselves. A fair number of parishes came to believe that they could no longer be all things to all people. The decisions of GC03 led to the balkanization of pecusa. Liberals fled conservative parishes after those conservative parishes more clearly defined themselves as against the direction of pecusa. Conservatives fled liberal parishes even where there was a moderate liberal priest that they had earlier tolerated.

So, is the worst over?

I don't think so. The PB could say this without being laughed out of the room because the pecusa decrease in 2007 was 38,000 whereas the losses for 2004-06 were all above 50,000 per year. So, on the face of it, the losses appear to be slowing. The problem with this optimistic forecast is that one year does not necessarily point to a trend.

What we've seen over the past six years is that liberals are largely gone from conservative parishes, particularly parishes like ours (St. Andrew's, Vestal) that have left pecusa. Meanwhile, some conservatives have not left their longtime parishes. This could change. We have seen a number of folks visit our parish from area Episcopal parishes. Sometimes it's out of curiosity; other times it is because these folks have been force fed more pecusa liberalism than they can stand. This feeling will escalate when the decisions of the next General Convention are broadcast this summer.

No, I don't think that the worst is over for pecusa. While the number of dioceses that will leave pecusa may slow, I expect that the number of individuals and families that leave will pick up again after GC09. We've already seen some movement, and it will increase after this summer's General Convention.