By David W. Virtue
www.virtueonline.org
9/29/2007
The Episcopal Church faces a triumvirate of problems that is seeing the
denomination decimated of people. TEC is facing serious clergy loss,
declining ordinations and millions of dollars spent on litigation to
keep and maintain parishes that are, in many cases, no longer viable.
The church claims 2.4 million members. In reality, less than 800,000
attend weekly services. Even that figure is seriously being compromised
as more than 700 orthodox Episcopalians leave weekly because of the
church's rejection of the authority of Scripture and its sub-biblical
positions on human sexuality, specifically the blessing of same-sex
unions and the consecration of a non-celibate homosexual to the
episcopacy. Following the Sept. 30 deadline the Episcopal Church has
been given by the Primates of the Anglican Communion to repent and
become Windsor-compliant, that figure is expected to escalate.
Average Sunday attendance is considerably lower than membership figures.
They are more reflective of what is happening at the parish level every
week.
Here are the following estimates in summary. From 2005 to 2006 the
Average Sunday Attendance (ASA) declined by 11,000 members, based on
2005 domestic ASA to 787,000. That's down 1.4% for the year. In 2002
domestic ASA was 847,000, 8% less attendance since the Robinson
consecration, or 71,000 fewer people attending the Episcopal Church
every week, and the decline is continuing. Most dioceses are still in
absolute decline with only 2 or 3 growing. The ones that are growing are
experiencing only very modest growth. The 2006 ASA graphs are now online
and can be viewed here:
http://www.episcopalchurch.org/growth_60791_ENG_HTM.htm?menupage=50929
Small-membership in The Episcopal Church is defined as having a Sunday
attendance of 70 people or less. Nearly half of all congregations in the
Episcopal Church fall into this category.
Small membership churches are located in a variety of different
settings. In the Episcopal Church 30% are in rural and open country (In
the Episcopal Church, the Diocese of Virginia has the greatest number of
congregations that fall into this category.), larger town or small
cities (50%), downtown (5%), older residential (7%), older suburb (6%)
and newer suburbs (2%).
Their membership indicates that 26.5% are growing, 26.7% are stable with
46.8% declining.
A Clergy Age profile and Ordination trends in the Episcopal Church
report, delivered at the recent HOB in New Orleans and obtained by
VirtueOnline, reveals a catastrophic future for the church with over
half of the Episcopal clergy - 52.7 percent - being within ten years of
the normal retirement age (65) or older.
The Episcopal Church could potentially lose half of its current active
clergy within the next 10 years, in contrast to the profession's
possible attribution rate of 22.5%.
The number of those coming into the priesthood between the ages of 18
and 34 is less than five percent. Those aged 35 to 44 is 12.5% with
those aged 45 to 54, a whopping 30%. Those aged 65 or older was 9.1%.
From an educational perspective in 2006, only 20% of professional
clergy held a Master's Degree. Among those 35 - 44, 29% had a Master's
degree; 29% of those aged 45 to 54 had a Master's degree; and only 18%
of those aged 55 to 64 held a Master's degree.
Ordination trends look even more discouraging, according to the Church
Pension Fund.
The overall evidence is that there is an increasing number of older
ordinands coming into the ministry.
While 71% of ordinands in the 1960s were under 35, only 24% will be in
the same age group in the 2000s. A predicted 53% of ordinands during
this decade will be age 45 or older.
While the absolute numeric clergy shortage has been reversed, the trend
toward an older average age at ordination continues.
Despite the increasing number of ordinations since 2000, over half of
recent ordinands will retire in the next 25 years.
"We predict that Generation X will not sustain this high rate of midlife
ordinations, and when large numbers of Baby Boomers begin to retire, the
rate of ordination of people under 45 will not be enough to replace the
retirees."
The one bright note the report concluded was that a smaller denomination
calls for fewer clergy. Like other Mainline Protestant denominations
which have been declining over the last 30 years, the Episcopal Church
has decreased from over 3 million members in the mid-sixties to less
than 2.5 million.
In 2006 the Gallup organization interviewed 11,000 adult Americans
between 2002 and 2005. They found that 44 percent of Americans attend
church weekly or almost weekly. The poll also revealed that
Episcopalians are not only far below the national average in church
attendance, they are far below the average for mainline Protestant
denominations.
According to Thomas C. Reeves, author of "The Empty Church: The Suicide
of Liberal Christianity," nearly half of children who grow up in the
Episcopal Church leave the church when they reach an age of decision.
The average Episcopalian is much older than the average American, or the
average churchgoer.
A Gallup poll, seventeen years ago, showed that only 9 percent of
Episcopalians considered their church "excellent," compared to 27
percent of Protestants, in general.
Dr. Kirk Hadaway, director of research for the Episcopal Church Center,
offers his analysis of the decline. According to the Blue Book, "In
addressing the reasons for the loss of members since the 2003 General
Convention", Dr. Hadaway said the explanation is complex and that the
decline mirrors declines in all mainline churches over the last two
years. At most, he said, "a third could be attributed to the actions of
General Convention. Perhaps of greater consequence is the fact that The
Episcopal Church has the lowest birth rate and highest mean age of any
mainline denomination, meaning that church growth must come through
evangelism to the unchurched. Cultural trends (athletic and
entertainment schedules, etc.) also have their effect on the size and
vitality of local congregations."
In other words, the Episcopal Church is the most aging, stagnant
denomination in American Protestantism today.
As one of America's leading sociologists, author of 20 books and an
Anglican Dr. Os Guinness observed, "When the leaders of a faith deny the
heart of the faith and advocate positions long considered antithetical
to its views, and still remain its leaders, what does it say of the
fidelity of the leaders and the integrity and authority of the faith?
Some of the greatest writers of the nineteenth century, from across the
Western world, were among the voices warning of the church's stupidity
in trying to improve on God's ways, or of the insanity of trendy clerics
fatuously sawing off the branch of faith on which they were sitting."
END
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