This entry is from the talk page on the Episcopal Church at Wikipedia. There is a concerted effort to deny the deep losses that pecusa has suffered since 2003. The director of research has called the losses from 2003-2005 "precipitous." Here's the talk on this subject:
Membership
Wassupwestcoast, why are you reverting my changes regarding membership? The current statement that membership is flat for the last few decades, with no ASA discussion (far better indicator) and people removing discussion of age trends is highly biased. Even pro-TEC folks don't believe this distorted view. There can be no doubt that we have shrunk. The only question is how much and what is the most accurate measure. --User:ReasonandRevelation 21:56, 12 September 2007
I'm the one who reverted, mostly on the basis of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy you made in connecting the drop in membership since 2003 with the election of Gene Robinson. Someone could probably show a drop in membership since 2001 too; should we connect that drop in membership with 9/11? Or the drop in membership since 2000 with the presidency of George W. Bush? —Angr 22:20, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
User:ReasonandRevelation, the reference you provided is already referenced in the text (Ref.57) and it is quoting old data. Please look at Ref 55 to 59. There was a dip in 2003 that was recovered by 2005. This might be a statistical fluke or represent a recovery. "The Christian Century" article of Nov 2006 - see [1]- gives a count for active membership of 2,205,376. This is stated as being a "net loss of nearly 115,000 members over the past three years. To quote the article:
On the three-year loss of 115,000 members, James B. Lemler, Episcopal director of mission, said in an interview that the totals "are not more than we expected." Lemler also said that officials were heartened that average Sunday attendance in 2005 did not decline as it did in the previous two years. The average Sunday worship attendance in 2005 was 787,000 people, down only 8,500.
So the article itself suggests things have flattened out. But more to the point, TEC's most recent membership stats as of Jan 2007 of 2005 parochial reports found here [2] give "total active baptized members" of 2,369,477. The difference of 2,369,477 - 2,205,376 = 164,101 which is about 50 000 greater than the loss between 2005 and 2002. What does this mean? Well, I'll skip Disraeli - "lies, damned lies, and statistics" - and say I dislike church statistics because a) too often the numbers are used to clobber the opposition, and b) the bean counting of church members is imprecise. An example of this bean counter clobbering and counter clobbering can be found in the analysis prepared by the Moderator of the Anglican Communion Network - see [3] - and countered by a group called Progressive Episcopalians of Pittsburgh - see [4]. I think we should keep the membership issue to a minimum. The latest numbers do suggest that the numbers are flat. Cheers! Wassupwestcoast 23:55, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
There was a steep decline in membership during the '60s and into the '70s as with most mainline Protestants and the Roman Catholic Church. This is mentioned and referenced. Does anyone equate this with the civil rights movement? Cheers! Wassupwestcoast 00:05, 13 September 2007 (UTC)
The Church of England first used Sunday Attendance in the census of 30 March 1851 and it has been criticized by methodologists ever since. For example, does a change in Average Sunday Attendance (ASA) simply mean a change in frequency of church attendance? In the life of a church, active membership could remain flat while its Average Sunday Attendance goes down as members opt to attend only twice a month. Should many opt to come three times a month, the Average Sunday Attendance increases and yet the total active membership will not have changed. Cheers! Wassupwestcoast 00:34, 13 September 2007 (UTC)
I understand your points, but even the most ardent pro-TEC supporters like Louie Crew acknowledge that TEC has hemorrhaged members over the last 40 years and TEC itself admits drops since 2003, as my links (and the links previously posted) pointed out. While there may be an argument that there is more to the story, the current discussion of membership is completely biased in favor of TEC (and I am an Episcopalian, but I am pretty tired of the spin).
Shoot, this year alone the Virginia secessions are larger than several dozen whole dioceses. I’d like to see some support for the proposition that it has been flat since 2003. And it’s not a post hoc fallacy to suppose that it was partly based on Gene Robinson. His consecration is the single most disruptive thing to happen to our church in my lifetime. I have never been in a Wikipedia edit war, and I admit that I am not that committed, but it is a shame that ideology trumps objectivity. The edits I made were incredibly cautious and arguably don't even begin to tell the story of the exodus that has happened in the last 3.5 years.
I don't know where you are getting your stats from, but just look at TEC's own self-reported stats: 846,000 in 2002 (the year before Robinson), and 787,000 ASA in 2005. Conspicuously absent from TEC is official reporting from 2006, even though we're almost done with 2007, and, as noted above, 2007 has witnessed a hemorrhage of whole churches leaving. Furthermore, this is on the back of major declines in attendance in the last 40 years.
http://www.episcopalchurch.org/documents/Average_Sunday_Attendance_1995-05_by_Domestic_Diocese.pdf
It's not accurate to chalk these major numbers changes to methodology. Also relevant to my church's story is the alarming increase in the average age, now somewhere around 57.
Respectfully,--ReasonandRevelation. —Preceding unsigned comment added by ReasonandRevelation (talk • contribs) 18:09, 14 September 2007 (UTC)
If Robinson's consecration is the most disruptive thing to happen to the ECUSA in your lifetime, you must be too young to remember the issues of the ordination of women and the 1979 prayer book. There's nothing wrong with discussing the numbers, but only a statistical analysis will tell you whether the change since 2003 is statistically significant or not (and it would have to be cited; we can't do our own statistical analyses here), and we would have to cite someone else's claim that the membership loss is due to Robinson. Interpreting the numbers ourselves is original research. —Angr 20:57, 14 September 2007 (UTC)
Yes, OR must be avoided. Do not speculate anything that cannot be cited. -- SECisek 05:21, 17 September 2007 (UTC)
All I have done is cite pure statistics. I think that yall are coming up with methodological shortcomings to justify yourp position. It is equally highly suspect that TEC has had flat membership in the last 40 years and conspicuously biased to let that be the whole story. If you want to add to the tale, do so, but it is virtually beyond debate that we have lost members and churches in alarming numbers in the last 3.5 years--TEC ITSELF admits that.
I note you have not contradicted the stats I provided above (nor the links that were several times deleted).
For the record, Robinson's consecration and the aftermath far outstrips anything that occurred 30 years ago. Far more people and churches leaving, and the Anglican Communion on the brink of collapse. At any rate, if you are more adamant than I about this Wikipedia article, you will win the edit war, but that does not make it right. If you think that 2003 is an inappropriate date from which to analyze, you should participate in telling a balanced story for the last few decades. I have made very cautious changes that have been edited out many times. This is why Wikipedia is a propaganda tool for controverial topics. --ReasonandRevelation. —Preceding unsigned comment added by ReasonandRevelation (talk • contribs) 14:08, 17 September 2007
Do you seriously think the membership numbers of ECUSA and number of churches in it wouldn't have decreased if Robinson hadn't been consecrated? Or that the Anglican Communion would be any less "on the brink of collapse"??? The current crisis is way bigger than one little bishop in New Hampshire. —Angr 14:14, 17 September 2007 (UTC)
User:ReasonandRevelation, two points. Point one: no one doubts that TEC membership has dropped substantially in the last 40 years. It says so in the article. Since about 2000, active baptized membership has been remarkably flat - numerous references support this claim. They contradict your assertion. Point two: the ordination of women has had serious and long lasting effects on the TEC. Parishes left the TEC. Members left the TEC. Dioceses and Provinces in the Anglican Communion have been out of communion with the TEC for thirty years. The ordination of women has already split the communion. No one much talks about this now. Bishop Schori recently made comments that reflects both these points - see US Primate taks a 'long, calm view"
“ The bishop acknowledged the conservatives in her church - those people jarred by 35 years of constant change from the ordination of women through the inclusion of children to revisions in the prayer book - are fuelling the outrage of some outspoken African bishops over the open acceptance of gays and lesbians.
However, Jefferts Schori, who calculates the disgruntled at one half of one per cent of her 2.4 million-member church, calculates the international disgruntlement at a similar level
”
and
“ Asked if her position as the first female primate adds fuel to the fire, Jefferts Schori acknowledged female leadership runs out of step with the culture in some places in the Anglican Communion.
But, she added, with a strong glint of humour, “they treated my predecessor (Bishop Frank Griswold) the same way they treated me.”
And, since 14 primates refused to take part in a Eucharist with Bishop Griswold at a previous primates’ meeting, while only seven refused to participate with her in Dar-Es-Salaam, she figures progress is being made.
”
Note Bishop Schori has a PhD in science and worked as a scientist. I think of all of us she probably has the best grasp of numbers and statistics. Cheers! Wassupwestcoast 15:32, 17 September 2007 (UTC)
We are getting into an editing war in this section with flat liners versus precipitous decliners. Perhaps we need to expand this section to lay out some basic stats and then give the various interpretations of what these stats mean. clariosophic 20:34, 24 October 2007 (UTC)clariosophic 20:42, 24 October 2007 (UTC)
I've thought about doing this before: it would involve lots of graphs and charts. The Episcopal Church's fourth bishop was so convinced that the TEC would go extinct by 1820 that he gave up and retired. The real precipitous decline was in the 1780s and another decline in the 1920s. The problem with all these church numbers is the 'anchoring problem'. The TEC hit a Mt Everest peak in the 1950s and all the discussion since then has been anchored to those numbers. And it isn't just the TEC, all the mainline Protestant churches showed a huge spike in the 1950s compared to the 1920s. Essentially, the US experienced two Great Awakenings a century apart and everything has not glistened like those golden eras since. Cheers! Wassupwestcoast 20:53, 24 October 2007 (UTC)
There is an editing war going on. It is between those who can read data honestly and those who obfuscate. When an editor quotes Hadaway, the director of research for pecusa and then balks at his characterization of the drop in membership as "precipitous," we have a bias problem. The 2.2 number is from Hadaway. The description "precipitous: is also from Hadaway. The escalating losses in 2003-2005 is from official pecusa documents. Let the truth be told. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Tonyseel (talk • contribs) 02:37, 25 October 2007 (UTC)
I can read numbers very well. Please read this, the Episcopal Church's most recent membership stats as of Jan 2007 of 2005 parochial reports found here [5] at the Episcopal Church's website and see if the "total active baptized members" is not 2,369,477. Hadaway and the Christian Century article are using older numbers. Hadaway's analysis is from 2004. The Christian Century is from 2006. The latest numbers are from Jan 2007. The difference of 2,369,477 - 2,205,376 = 164,101 which is about 50 000 greater than the loss between 2005 and 2002. Thus, there are swings up and down over the short term which indicates a flat or plateau trend. When the new numbers come out in a few months perhaps it will be down or up. Cheers! Wassupwestcoast 02:59, 25 October 2007 (UTC)
The latest available figures should be used, the article you insist on basing this section on is now outdated. The fact you keep referring to the church as pecusa, rather than its modern title of TEC is interesting. Don't keep changing the article until you achive consensus on this talk page, and bear in mind the 3 revert rule, which you've probably already broken. —Preceding unsigned comment added by David Underdown (talk • contribs) 12:09, 25 October 2007 (UTC)
Your selective use of the 3 revert rule is interesting. My first edit was removed because I didn't cite sources. When I cited sources that were already being used, my edit was still removed. What you call dated is more recent information than what was cited previously for the 2.3 million number and my figure is from the director of research for pecusa (btw, I use pecusa because it is the official name and it identifies the sectarian nature of recent innovations. You may not remember the lawsuit that 815 filed or threatened to file against Bp. Wantland in order to retain this name). The fact that you are clinging to outdated numbers speaks volumes. This will all be settled when pecusa releases the 2006 figures. This argument is not about accuracy, because if it was you would acknowledge the most recent figures. It is about maintaining a position not founded in fact - that position is that pecusa is not losing thousands of members a year. pecusa is losing thousands of members a year and your attempts to cover this up will ultimately fail. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Tonyseel (talk • contribs) 14:41, 25 October 2007 (UTC)
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